Business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic

Posted by / 11-Oct-2019 08:49

Business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic

That decision was made because of the numerous other indicators that reached their lows during the third quarter of 1980.In two previous cases, 19, business cycle troughs in NBER's chronology also occurred one quarter later than the low point for real GNP.Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months.The committee acts only on the basis of actual indicators and does not rely on forecasts in making its determination of the dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.CAMBRIDGE, April 12 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met at the organization’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 8, 2010.The committee reviewed the most recent data for all indicators relevant to the determination of a possible date of the trough in economic activity marking the end of the recession that began in December 2007.

Total employment began to recover sharply this spring and is now almost back to its pre-recession peak.The trough date would identify the end of contraction and the beginning of expansion.Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature.The committee also strongly emphasized that the expansion has been extending throughout the economy in recent months and is now widespread.For example, approximately five-sixths of all manufacturing, mining and utility industries now report higher production levels than they were experiencing six months ago, and three fourths of all nonfarm industries report higher employment levels than six months ago.

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Reaffirming its earlier identification of January 1980 as the prior peak in business activity, the committee observed that the six months between the peak and the trough make the recession of 1980 the shortest recorded since the beginning of the NBER's business cycle chronology in 1854.